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Rotblatt Jun 13 2005 04:34 PM

I was looking at Mientkiewicz's stats today and was struck by just how shitty he's been at Shea--and even more surprised by how decent he's been elsewhere. Anyway, I decided to see how our boys were doing at home so far. Those who have played better at Shea are in orange; those Away in blue. Dramatic splits are in bold. Player : OPS H : OPS A : Cliff : 1.052 : .728 Diaz : .996 : .805 =blue]Wright : .849 : .988 =blue]Cameron : .789 : 1.405 Piazza : .787 : .689 Reyes : .706 : .670 =blue]Beltran : .697 : .926 =blue]Cairo : .688 : .739 Matsui : .652 : .541 =blue]Mientkiewicz : .471 : .853 Dougie, of course, takes the cake here. He's been terrible at Shea, and pretty darn good everywhere else. Cliff's splits surprised me, so I looked at his career splits, and guess who's consistently been better at Shea? 2004: .861 at H, .769 A. 2003: .950 H, .841 A. So we can certainly expect Cliff to keep producing at Shea and struggling a bit on the road. Ditto on Piazza: 2004 .934 H, .694 A. It split the other way for Piazza before then, but this feels more like a trend to me . . . Batting Ranks for Away Games overall rank in parentheses R/G: 4th (10th) HR/G: 1st (7th) BA: 9th (11th) OBP: 8th (14th) SLG: 5th (10th) OPS: 5th (10th) Batting Ranks for Home Games overall rank in parentheses R/G: 14th (10th) HR/G: 11th (7th) BA: 10th (11th) OBP: 14th (14th) SLG: 13th (10th) OPS: 14th (10th) We're consistently in the top third of offensive batting rankings in Away games, and in the bottom third at home. It's worth noting that our OBP & BA are exactly the same both home & away, but that most teams seem to get a lift from batting at home--or struggle away from home, depending on your point of view. We don't, and this has hurt us. It seems to me that Mets brass really needs to evaluate why players like Floyd & Piazza (since last year, at least) are more successful at Shea and try to find FA hitters with swings they think will do well here. Or at least avoid players like Dougie, with such extreme problems at Shea. Of course, it's early, and this may turn out to be a total fluke, but I thought it was interesting enough to share . . .

Edgy DC Jun 13 2005 04:40 PM

]We're consistently in the top third of offensive batting rankings in Away games, and in the bottom third at home. It's worth noting that our OBP & BA are exactly the same both home & away, but that most teams seem to get a lift from batting at home--or struggle away from home, depending on your point of view. We don't, and this has hurt us. Unless the split is more pronounced for our opponents. ]It seems to me that Mets brass really needs to evaluate why players like Floyd & Piazza (since last year, at least) are more successful at Shea and try to find FA hitters with swings they think will do well here. Or at least avoid players like Dougie, with such extreme problems at Shea. This is really really hard. And by the time the Mets brass has gone from speculation to a solid thesis, the Mets may have a new home.

Frayed Knot Jun 13 2005 04:57 PM

That the team as a whole is closer to the top of batting stats on the road and lower at home isn't surprising seeing as how Shea plays as a pitchers' park more often than not. But I'd be shocked if you could find some kind of telltale "trait" indicating which players would succeed at Shea and which wouldn't to the point where it would even remotely useful as a predictive factor. "Flukes" - or just random variations if you prefer - are likely the better explanations.

Rotblatt Jun 13 2005 04:58 PM

]Unless the split is more pronounced for our opponents. That's a good point. I'll try and take a look at that tomorrow, although if someone else gets to it first, that's even better. ]This is really really hard. And by the time the Mets brass has gone from speculation to a solid thesis, the Mets may have a new home. It does sound hard, doesn't it? I know the Sox have been doing it for a few years now (one of the reasons they signed Ortizzle) with varying degrees of success . . .